Tuesday, 6 August 2013

It's an election so it's time to blog...about polls

Let's start with polls. Properly constructed polls don't lie. Yes, there are increasing challenges in polling now that people don't answer landlines but pollsters work their way around that.

However, there are differences between each of the polling techniques so that gives different results. At the moment, most of the major polls have the Coalition in front on both a primary vote and two party preferred basis.

Newspoll: L-NP 52%; Labor 48%
Essential: L-NP 51%; Labor 49%
Roy Morgan: L-NP 50.5%; Labor 49.5%
Galaxy: L-NP 50%; Labor 50%

The bounce has stopped

What's more important is that the Coalition has been in front for almost all of the past two years. PM Gillard got a fillip after the misogyny speech. PM Rudd got his recent bounce.

But there is no sustained trend. The Coalition has remained in front. One bounce does not an election win make.

How could Labor win from these polls?

There's only one way I can see for Labor to win. It comes from the Morgan Poll.

Morgan is the only firm to ask voters for their preferences. The other firms calculate it from the 2010 patterns. Morgan claims that the preferences from minor party votes will flow stronger to Labor than in 2010, and their poll has been showing a better result for Labor than the other polls as a result.

If they are right, Labor will hold seats that the other pollsters expect them to lose. If, if and if ... probably not.

From where I stand, the prospect of Tony Abbott as leader of Australia is not a pretty thought - but at least there appears no chance now of the Coalition controlling the Senate.

Let me know what you think

Mark S

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