Why can't we see that life is still very good?

We don't know how good we have it.

We Australians have a very good life.

The fundamentals of the Australian economy are very good.  Most people have a job.  Businesses are still profitable. Health care is the best it has ever been.  The quality of our food is high.  So why is there a pall of gloom hanging over us?

We compare ourselves to what we had 

Rightly or wrongly, humans evaluate our state in terms of gains and losses. Rather than looking at how wealthy we are or how much food we have, we instinctively assess whether we have gained or lost.  During the mid 2000s boom, most people had more money (even if a lot was on credit), jobs were very easy to get, asset prices were booming and confidence was high. 

Now, everyone feels like they have lost (unless you are one of the small number who work in mining).  We are all a little behind what we were at the peak.  Oddly, although our logical brain knows that Australia is in a strong position, and much better than the rest of the world, our emotions win the day. We feel the losses. It is those feelings that dominate. 

Unfortunately, our emotions then have a big say in our decisions. Our logical brain says "everything is fine - we have plenty of money, just not as much as 2008".  Our emotions say "look at how much money we have LOST. Let's batten down the hatches."

Sentiment then feeds off itself 

Once the emotions win the battle, the negative feedback turns into reality. People stop spending. Businesses start failing. People lose jobs.

Job hunters queuing for 50 jobs at London Zoo

We can override these emotions. We need a different frame of reference. Rather than comparing to the past, we can compare to other benchmarks. We can compare ourselves to the British or the Americans. These are western nations that we can relate to. 

We need stories comparing the average Briton, or American to the average Australian. We need to see our current state as a WIN not as a LOSS. 

If we don't do something quickly to defeat our emotions, they will make our very fears a reality. 

Let me know what you think

Mark S

We underrate the fast thinking of footballers, nurses and police

Doug Hawkins - famous in AFL for footy smarts despite low IQ

What are the fast thinking qualities that make a great poker player, midfield footballer, chess player or many other pursuits where there is very limited time for complex decision making? What we do know is that traditional intelligence doesn't measure it very well at all. Football (all codes) is littered with examples of players with  football smarts who are very unintelligent in the "real world". Chess success is also less correlated with IQ than you might imagine.  So what are these smarts?

Let's take a look at what makes good decision making.  

There are four key elements. 

1. Background knowledge.
For example, in football, you really need to understand the rules and the various strategies. If the coach talks about a zone v man on man defence, you have to have all of that knowledge stored away. You need to know which side your opponent prefers to kick with, and a champion Chess player needs to know all of the main opening lines.

2. You need to capture the relevant information at the time.
Scientists and analysts conduct research to collect their data (I'm in that category) but footballers need to gather a lot of critical information in a few seconds. Where is the ball, where are the players, where are they all moving to and more.  Collecting the relevant information quickly is vital. 

3. Processing the information. 
When the high IQ people in the world process information they often use statistics, computers, data models and a whole range of techniques. You can't do that in football and unless you are a computer you can't in Chess either. There isn't enough time.  So, smart players have an alternative method of processing this information that they've captured almost immediately. We know that some of this is innate and some is learned.  We also know that the thinking system they are using is a completely different one to the system I use when I am doing rigorous analysis. 

4. Act on it
The best players sum up all this information and make a decision - generally within one second. Once they have made that decision they have to execute it. A kick to a player, a tackle, a chess move. Actually picking up a chess piece and placing it where you decided to is pretty easy. Kicking a ball through a small gap when you are running full pace is not. 

So what is all this about?

We know that different thinking styles exist and are relevant to different careers. Nurses and police are more like footballers than analysts.  We need more nurses and police, so we need to understand more about this fast thinking style.  We are only scratching the surface but rather than focusing only on analysts like me, let's make sure our education and societal systems recognize the importance of these fast thinking approaches. 

This area hasn't had enough study. I will keep looking out for more information and let's all start to champion these differences as equals.

Let me know what you think

Mark S