The end of get-rich-quick schemes (for now)

The last 20 years has been pretty unusual.  There has been a lot of opportunities to get rich quick (or get poor if you messed up). There was the Internet boom and bust, a few stock market booms, rising house prices, rising commodities prices, low unemployment, a housing boom and huge wages for mining workers.

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

So, whether you were white collar or blue collar, there have been plenty of ways to get rich if you took a few risks.

It's over!

Back to the old days - do things that people want

What is going to happen now is simple. If you offer products or services that people want, they will be bought, at a fair price. If you are a healthcare worker, there is a lot of demand for your services - you will be able to get work and charge a fair price for it. If you are a manufacturing worker in Australia, there is less demand for your services.  You will need to be one of the best manufacturing workers, or reskill, or do something different.

More importantly, as a society, we need to think about what people want, and create those products and services.  Before mobile phones, few people thought that having a mobile phone would be a necessity. They were a luxury item.  In hindsight, we can see how useful they are, and mobile phone companies have done very well.

Before the washing machine, the idea of having a mechanical way to do laundry wasn't obvious. But once the washing machine was invented, every washing person (mainly, women) wanted one. (Watch Hans Rosling's great talk for more on this). And increasingly, we are happy to pay for the services of others to do other cleaning for us.

What happens next?

Now, it is up to us, to identify what the next washing machine is.

Ask yourself, what do I want? What does my neighbour want?

Ask yourself, how can I do what I already do better, faster, more effectively?

Ask yourself, how can I "sell" my great services better.  I know that what I offer to my firm, or my customers is valuable.  I need to communicate that value better.

Every transaction has to offer value to both sides.

Ask yourself, am I doing something that nobody wants or needs any more? If you are handwashing clothes, while everyone else is using a washing machine, sooner or later, your customers will politely stop paying for your services.  Make sure that you keep up with the times.

We will get wealthier as we continue to be more productive

By doing all of these "normal" things, we will get a little more effective every day.  Our incomes will grow a little every day, and our standard of living will grow a little every day.  It won't be a get-rich-quick scheme.  The improvements will often be so small that you won't notice it - much like healthy eating - one day you look back and realise that you have taken off weight.

So, in 2013, let's all get rich moderately quickly.  Let's all try to do just a little bit better in what we do, or change what we do and choose something different. When we all do that, we all benefit.

In 2013, let's be innovative, productive, and creative.  By the end of the year, you will notice the difference.

Let me know what you think

Mark S

Why can't we see that life is still very good?

We don't know how good we have it.

We Australians have a very good life.

The fundamentals of the Australian economy are very good.  Most people have a job.  Businesses are still profitable. Health care is the best it has ever been.  The quality of our food is high.  So why is there a pall of gloom hanging over us?

We compare ourselves to what we had 

Rightly or wrongly, humans evaluate our state in terms of gains and losses. Rather than looking at how wealthy we are or how much food we have, we instinctively assess whether we have gained or lost.  During the mid 2000s boom, most people had more money (even if a lot was on credit), jobs were very easy to get, asset prices were booming and confidence was high. 

Now, everyone feels like they have lost (unless you are one of the small number who work in mining).  We are all a little behind what we were at the peak.  Oddly, although our logical brain knows that Australia is in a strong position, and much better than the rest of the world, our emotions win the day. We feel the losses. It is those feelings that dominate. 

Unfortunately, our emotions then have a big say in our decisions. Our logical brain says "everything is fine - we have plenty of money, just not as much as 2008".  Our emotions say "look at how much money we have LOST. Let's batten down the hatches."

Sentiment then feeds off itself 

Once the emotions win the battle, the negative feedback turns into reality. People stop spending. Businesses start failing. People lose jobs.

Job hunters queuing for 50 jobs at London Zoo

We can override these emotions. We need a different frame of reference. Rather than comparing to the past, we can compare to other benchmarks. We can compare ourselves to the British or the Americans. These are western nations that we can relate to. 

We need stories comparing the average Briton, or American to the average Australian. We need to see our current state as a WIN not as a LOSS. 

If we don't do something quickly to defeat our emotions, they will make our very fears a reality. 

Let me know what you think

Mark S

Baillieu is taking Victoria back to 1875 - truly Victorian - truly fucking outrageous

Please be advised that this blog contains swear words (like the one in the title).  Small children and Mr Baillieu are advised to please not read it.

Baillieu as a 19th century Victorian: it looks like the
Sex Party Vic election video had it spot on

With a one seat majority on the floor of the Victorian Parliament, wouldn't you think that Premier Ted Baillieu would want to govern for all. Instead, he is leading the most dramatic charge towards social conservatism this State has seen for a very long time.

He says it's about law and order.  Let's take a look at Baillieu's own rap sheet after only 6 months in office.

Rejection of safe injecting rooms

Despite overwhelming evidence of the value of safe injecting rooms, and the support of the local community in Richmond, Ted Baillieu said "We haven't supported injecting rooms, we won't support injecting rooms, and I don't support the normalisation of any of this sort of behaviour."

It is clear that his focus isn't on law and order with a decision like that.  In fact, law and order is much better served by having a safe injecting room. Mayor of Yarra, Alison Clarke and Councillor Stephen Jolly understand their community.

Cr Jolly said "We can't just put our head in the sand and close our eyes to harm minimisation approaches. It's not good enough."

Well, Ted Baillieu is happy to act like an ostrich on that one.


Passing discriminatory laws

Only yesterday, I wrote about the Victorian Equal Opportunity Amendment Bill 2011 that allows churches and other faith-based groups including religious schools to discriminate.  They don't have to justify discrimination as an inherent requirement on the basis of sex, sexual orientation, lawful sexual activity, marital status, parental status or gender identity.


It was yesterday's blog, so I won't repeat it, but you can access it here.

This Bill certainly has nothing to do with law and order, and everything to do with very outdated social policies, particularly those associated with the old fashioned church.  Ted's upbringing at the Anglican Melbourne Grammar has obviously influenced him.  According to the school's own website, its second Headmaster, Edward Morris chose the motto "Pray and Work" in 1875, and supported the principle that education and religion go hand in hand.

Thanks to Mr Morris, we are now able to date Ted Baillieu's philosophy to 1875.


On the spot fines for swearing. 

Fucking hell, of the three examples this is the most absolutely outrageous. The Attorney-General Robert Clark and Ted Baillieu seem quite proud of their $240 on the spot fines for “Uses profane indecent or obscene language or insulting words”.

When this trial was introduced in 2009/10, there was a 67% increase in offences.  Well, fuck me, if that isn't just a $1.34 million money grab.

88% of offences were males aged 18-59, and since most of the offences were on the street, it's clear that young males will be the most targeted, as they are the ones out having a good time.

Even the director of the Melbourne International Comedy Festival is taking a wait and see approach.  As comedian Will Anderson tweeted, "Suddenly my show is going to cost me a lot more next year."  Can you really imagine the MICF without a decent smattering of fuck and cunt - some of which is directed at the audience!! "I'm sorry Rich Hall, but that's profane and indecent - Officer, please hit him up for $240"

Tim Minchin sings "Fuck the Poor" at the MICF gala

In India, Toronto, Jerusalem, and New Zealand, and other locations around the world this decision has been reported and is turning Victoria into a laughing stock.  What, those nice Australians who swear all the time, and even launch major tourism campaigns with "Bugger"...!!


Stop fucking up Melbourne - we are proud of who we are

Melbourne is one of the most vibrant and interesting cities in the world. We are a city of culture, edginess and spirit. This is one of the most livable cities on the planet.

Ted Baillieu doesn't trust the good people of this State to create and maintain an outstanding society that is envied by the world. He wants to impose nanny state restrictions and 19th century morals.


Wake up We've moved on to the 21st century because what we have built for ourselves is better than some nostalgic view of the time of Queen Victoria.

Let me know what you think

Mark S

Social policies and economics must work hand in hand - we don't want to turn into Zimbabwe

Why do social policies matter?
Isn't it just all about the economy?
If a country has a weak economy, won't it just be in poverty and make all of the social policies irrelevant?

I understand the logic behind this line of thinking - but it is really a convenient excuse for some countries to ignore the well-being of their citizens, and ultimately it is flawed logic.

To explain, let me quote from the "Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress" set up by French President Sarkozy in 2008. This body is better known as Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi, who are the Commissioners, and it is assisted by a "Who's Who" of the world's economic and social policy experts..


It should be obvious that no single number can summarize anything as complex and variegated as “society”. But, inevitably,  certain numbers – in particular GDP – have taken center stage ... such a number may be misleading if it were applied to all purposes, and especially as a broader measure of societal performance. 


Measurement of “present” economic performance also includes an assessment of “quality of life”. Quality of life includes the full range of factors that make life worth living, including those that are not traded in markets and not captured by monetary measures. While many of our measures are directed at ascertaining short-run movements in the level of market activity ... the time has come to make a clear move from measuring production to measuring welfare, to try to close the gap between our measures of economic performance and widespread perceptions of well-being.

So here we have some of the world's leading economists explaining that it's not just all about economic measures.  Quality of life measures do matter, and quoting Stiglitz et. al. once more "...what we measure shapes what we collectively strive to pursue - and what we pursue determines what we measure."

For a stark piece of evidence, take a look at this chart of Zimbabwe's Human Development Index.  When Mugabe's land policies were implemented in the late 1990s, in combination with his human rights abuses, it hurt everyone.  The economy declined rapidly and the country's performance on social measures was easily the worst in the world. The social policies were a major factor in what hurt the economy.

Social policies impact on the economy and the economy impacts on society and quality of life. They both matter.


Let me know what you think.

Mark S